With investors apparently more comfortable with a Remain win, a vote to leave would nearly certainly send shockwaves through global markets.
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An ORB poll for Tuesday’s Daily Telegraph newspaper found support for Remain at 53 percent, up 5 percentage points on the previous one, with support for Leave on 46 percent, down three points.
“On the basis of the data in hand, our clean-up process suggests a 2 percentage-point lead on average for “Remain” in the polls published this week, with around 9 percent of the vote undecided”, J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in an email.
According to MarketWatch, an Ipsos Mori poll conducted for the Evening Standard showed 52 per cent of the respondents in the “Remain” camp compared with 48 per cent supporting the “Leave” camp.
Turnout is predicted to be key to the result, and the ORB poll found that Remain supporters, who had been regarded as being more apathetic, were becoming increasingly motivated to vote as polling day approaches. London and Scotland supported the European Union, but swathes of England that have not shared in the capital’s prosperity voted to leave.
“It’s very jittery and I suppose that’s very much going to be the order of the day until we see final results being announced”, said Robert Rennie, senior currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney.
Now as the actual results are starting to come in, LEAVE is doing far better than so called experts expectations most notable of which were the results from Sunderland and Newcastle Upon Tyne, that were far stronger leaning towards LEAVE than the experts had modeled them to be, which now throws into doubt REMAINs earlier complacency and YouGov’s poll.
The overseas territory of Gibraltar was the first to report results late Thursday, and as expected the British enclave reported an overwhelming vote for “remain” – 96 per cent.
It was the highest turnout in a UK-wide vote since the 1992 general election. “We don’t know what sort of deal they are going to cut with the European Union”. In Sunderland, 61 percent of voters chose “leave”, a bigger-than expected margin.
Polls have suggested a close battle for months, although the past few days have seen some indication of momentum swinging toward the “remain” side. Inevitably, there will be speculation about the future of David Cameron, the prime minister, and we may start to hear the views of businesses with regard to their future investment plans. London’s Fire Brigade took 550 weather-related calls as the capital was hit by heavy rain, thunderstorms and lightning strikes.
Storms overnight led to flooding in many areas, including at polling stations, and caused massive disruptions to public transport networks, with trains and London Underground lines severely delayed or cancelled.
Boris Johnson, the former London mayor and prominent campaigner for the U.K.to leave the European Union, began his day in an east London fish market.
If “leave” wins, he may have no choice but to resign. Scotland’s pro-EU First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said her devolved government was preparing to present legislation allowing a second independence referendum while continuing discussions on its place within the EU. “Talk about lame ducks”.
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Lastly, Canada’s benchmark stock index edged slightly lower on Wednesday, with energy stocks weighing as oil fell with a smaller-than-expected USA inventory drawdown and gold miners rose a day before Britain votes on its future in the European Union.
