The military drills come a few days ahead of an expected ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, based in the Hague, on China’s disputed territorial claims.
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“China is bound to comply with the award”. Since there is no enforcement mechanism for the ruling, any impact will depend on how the worldwide community reacts.
The nation has repeatedly declared that it does not consider the ruling of the arbitration court as legally binding.
That would deal a severe blow to China’s claims in the resource-rich region – through which $4.5tn (£3.4tn) of trade passes each year – where Beijing has conflicting claims with countries such as Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
The urgent task for China, Asean claimant nations and other relevant stakeholders is to strictly respect the DOC and work together to finalize the COC. Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said last month that the ruling could have implications beyond the South China Sea and “we cannot subscribe to the principle that might is right”. “This is an example we would encourage China to follow”, the top Pentagon official said. This is partly due to the fact that not all 10 ASEAN members are claimants to the South China Sea.
Given this, a joint statement issued by Russia-India-China in April after a trilateral meeting in Moscow raised eyebrows in India, especially among Asean diplomats.
Consequently, the tribunal may still rule that since its jurisdiction extends only to issues of interpretation and application of the Unclos on matters not otherwise reserved by a state party, it may not rule on the validity of the nine-dash lines given China’s assertion that the waters within the dotted lines are generated by land territories.
However, other experts argue a more substantial response is possible, including declaring an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea or an acceleration of China’s construction of artificial islands in the region.
China starts building on Scarborough Shoal, which it seized from the Philippines in 2012.
Beijing extends its media campaign, proclaiming the support of more than 60 countries for its position (a list it has so far not published in full).
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said it could confirm official statements from Afghanistan, Gambia, Kenya, Lesotho, Niger, Sudan, Togo and Vanuatu. While in April 1965, when a civil war broke out in the Dominican Republic and overturned a U.S.-installed government, the United States sent almost 40,000 troops to “restore order” in the country.
Instead, Townshend said Beijing was most likely to respond with “a temporary show of force”.
But Xu Liping with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is warning the overheated dispute in the South China Sea may cause losses to the common interests of the two sides and slow down the development of ASEAN’s integration process. The same reason had been used to justify the USA occupation of Haiti from 1915 to 1934.
“To India’s great credit, it accepted the decision and has abided by it, noting at the time that settlement of the issue would enhance mutual understanding and goodwill between the two countries”.
“To that question, we will have to wait for the final decision of the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague”.
China is therefore absolutely right when it says it refuses to accept or join any arbitration – and that it will also not acknowledge any resulting adjudication in absentia. Disputed parties must reconcile their differences through bilateral talks where appropriate if they really want to bring the South China Sea issues to a peaceful end.
Japan’s support of third-party dispute resolution is not universal.
The exercises are notably taking place in an area off the Paracel Islands, which Taiwan and Vietnam claim in addition to China. “China’s fighting back would only throw the situation into chaos”.
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Taiwan has complained that the tribunal has not solicited its views.
