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United Nations court likely to rule in favor of PH

On February 19, 2013 the People’s Republic of China rejected the Philippines’ move and said it did not accept the court’s jurisdiction.

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A statement made by former law dean Raul Pangalangan months before he was elected a judge of the International Criminal Court (ICC) circulated again last Friday, as anticipation over the ruling by the arbitral tribunal on the Philippine case against China mounted. “I am concerned that many seemed to have written off China’s non-compliance as a foregone conclusion”, Mr. Salmon said, adding, “China should be held accountable to the tribunal’s ruling”.

China’s position on the related issues has always been consistent and clear-cut, remaining committed to peaceful settlements through negotiations and consultations, managing the disputes through established rules and mechanisms, promoting joint development and cooperation, safeguarding freedom of navigation and overflight – and always pursuing peace and stability in the South China Sea region.

China’s claim to nearly 90 per cent of the South China Sea looks preposterous on a map – it extends more than a thousand kilometres from the southernmost point of China while coming within less than a hundred kilometres of the Filipino, Malaysian and Vietnamese coasts – but it is taken very seriously in China. In such a scenario, the Philippines, and other claimant nations can only negotiate effectively with China if it “manages to leverage the outcome of the arbitration case”.

The South China Sea arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines will set a “serious, wrong, and bad example” if it is allowed to go through, Chinese Ambassador to Britain Liu Xiaoming said.

If China fails to recognize the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling in the suit filed by the Philippines over China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea as it has threatened, Beijing will suffer a loss of credibility in the global arena, Taiwan Brain Trust associate executive director Lin Ting-hui (林廷輝) said. The case challenges the latter’s claim to virtually the entirety of the West Philippine Sea.

The United States, however, has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea despite having advocated a rules-based order. We are motivated by one simple thing – our desire to clarify maritime entitlements, specifically our fishing rights, rights to resources and rights to enforce our laws within our EEZ, based on worldwide law. The UNCLOS tribunal ruling could bring clarity to this situation wherein if a country has a problem with another, it can impose the territorial sea concept.

USA navy officials said Chinese naval ships, and sometimes fishing vessels, frequently track US ships in the South China Sea but it is not yet known if the presence of the destroyers attracted particular attention. So if the United States, which has ignored the ICJ verdict, pressures China to implement the arbitral tribunal’s ruling, it will be guilty of using double standard.

Last week, Duterte said his government stood ready to talk to China if it gets a favorable ruling.

“This is a time for China not to keep pushing forward too aggressively because they could embolden Vietnam and Indonesia to file a case as well”, Glaser said.

In June this year, a meeting took place in China between Chinese and the Asean foreign ministers.

“Although China is legally bound to its result, it has refused to participate and has clearly said it will not comply”. Chinese state media have accused Washington of trying to turn the South China Sea “into a powder keg” and warned it not to underestimate China’s determination to defend its territorial claims.

The UNCLOS does not exclude historic rights that predate it and are continuously claimed.

Either of the scenarios will automatically give China the right to not recognize and implement the ruling.

Meanwhile, the East China Sea – which has been relatively quiet for the past couple years – has also been the location in recent weeks of mutual complaints of fighters from Japan and China making provocative movements against each other.

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There are no easy answers to the South China Sea disputes.

South China Sea