Scientists say the hotter it gets, the better the mosquito that carries Zika virus is at transmitting a variety of unsafe illnesses.
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The scientists at Imperial College used existing data for zika transmission across Latin America as well as data on similar viruses such as dengue, and built a mathematical model to characterize the current epidemic and future transmission.
In Zika’s case, that process will take a decade or more, the authors of the new report project.
“This study uses all available data to provide an understanding of how the disease will unfold-and allows us to gauge the threat in the imminent future”.
Similar patterns have been seen in related viral infections, including chikungunya, Ferguson said.
In February, the United Nations declared the Zika virus as a “public health emergency of global concern”. Officials have urged women to delay or avoid pregnancy because of the virus’ link to microcephaly. The kits include insect repellent for skin and for treating clothing and shoes; standing-water tablets for killing mosquito larval; and condoms to prevent sexual transmission of the virus. In the Netherlands, sixty people have been diagnosed with the Zika virus.
“The current explosive epidemic will burn itself out due to a phenomenon called herd immunity. Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice-thanks to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it-the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained”, Ferguson explained in a press release.
“Despite knowing about this disease for almost 70 years, we were completely surprised and rushing to discover the very basic things about it when it invaded the Americas”, Lessler said.
Even if it fades for a brief period, it may still appear among children who have never been infected.
“I think this model is a real overreach of the data we have”, said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
Meanwhile, health officials are anxious that the Zika virus may spread in the United States. Reports have shown that more than 1,100 people have already been infected by Zika, mostly while they were traveling overseas. The CDC said 346 of the cases in USA states and another 303 in American territories such as Puerto Rico, where mosquitoes now are carrying the virus, involved pregnant women as of July 7.
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Americans’ use of window and door screens, plus the use of air conditioning, may help prevent massive outbreaks and reduce the number of people exposed to mosquito bites, the CDC said.
