According to the RealClearPolitics average of the latest national polls, in a head-to-head matchup, Trump now leads his Democratic counterpart, Hillary Clinton, by almost a full point.
Advertisement
Donald Trump got a post-convention bounce Monday, vaulting into a lead over Hillary Clinton in a CNN/ORC survey, but a CBS poll shows a deadlocked race.
“It’s a little premature to assume Clinton will get a convention bounce, but if she does get a bounce, she’ll be firmly in the lead again”, Enten said.
Clinton spoke to the same group Monday while Trump campaigned in Roanoke, Virginia and Winston-Salem.
In CNN’s most recent polling, Trump leads Clinton by 3 points in a two-way contest, and by 5 points when third-party candidates Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party’s Jill Stein are included. Seven percent of voters were still undecided.
The poll had a credibility interval of four percentage points, meaning that the two candidates should be considered about even in support. For months, an overwhelming belief was held that Donald Trump, no matter the record number of voters he received in the republican primaries, was not a real threat to win the United States presidency.
Silver’s model coincides with Trump’s rise in the polls after the Republican National Convention last week.
Trump also saw a boost in favorability.
While Clinton has spent much of her campaign highlighting her worldwide experience, some polls show active duty troops backing Trump over Clinton by more than a 2-to-1 margin.
The numbers do account for a post-convention bump, and FiveThirtyEight still has Clinton winning in its long-term “polls-plus” forecast, which considers current polls and historic information.
Worried Democrats say they thought some of the “dark” themes that Trump and his allies raised in Cleveland wouldn’t gain traction in modern-day America.
In a mark of Clinton’s unpopularity with white evangelicals, fully 84 per cent hold an unfavourable view of her and only 15 per cent a favourable view.
Advertisement
Another problem is applying national polls on a state level. “Generations of American troops fought, and yes died, to secure those bonds, because they knew we were safer with more friends and partners and fewer adversaries and enemies”, she said. The week before the Republican convention, Clinton was beating Trump 49% to 42%.
