Our Greg Sargent asked Gallup who the people were that were less likely to back Trump after his convention, yielding an unsurprising answer: “Trump’s convention made white women, college educated whites, independents, and young voters less likely to vote for Trump”.
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“Although the convention season is the time for multiple bounces in the polls, one party ends up with an advantage when the dust clears”.
Besides improving her standing against Trump, Clinton’s convention appears to have boosted the share of Americans who think her policies will move the country in the right direction (from 43% before either convention to 48% now), while Trump’s right direction number held roughly steady following the back-to-back political gatherings in Cleveland and Philadelphia. Khan criticized Trump on the last night of the Democratic convention, and Trump has been firing back ever since. After the Republican convention, CBS had found that Clinton and Trump were tied. Now, 58% say it’s straight up a vote for Clinton. “I remember this woman getting shit in 1992 for not baking cookies”, Salon’s Mary Beth Williams wrote on Twitter after the nominee’s acceptance speech, and Clinton herself, as if in testament to the phrase “once bitten, twice shy”, has at times downplayed her gender, most notably during her unsuccessful campaign for president in 2008.
Clinton now leads Trump in nationwide surveys 46 percent to 39 percent, according to CBS. CNN said its postconvention poll put Clinton up by nine points.
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If the choice for Sanders supporters is between Clinton and Trump, they are going to overwhelmingly support Clinton. Despite what liberal pollster Nate Silver (whom I took on here last November over Trump and dusted him) would like to have you believe, interpreting polls is mostly an exercise in common sense. There was no gender gap in perceptions of Trump’s speech. Yes, she still has a problem with Bernie Sanders supporters and extremely low likability numbers, but since she isn’t running against a legitimate GOP candidate, she is very much on track to slog to victory, especially with huge advantages in the Electoral College. While 73% said they thought the GOP would unite by November in a post-GOP convention poll, just 66% say the same now. Results for the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
