If a farmer was really lucky, they may have sold or forward contracted corn for $3.50-$4, but there haven’t been opportunities to price grain at 2012 or 2013 levels. The yield is forecast at 91.0 bushels per acre, up 4 bushels from a year ago.
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The challenge was that prices were never “great” before the rally was gone.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said above-average rainfall kept most of Illinois’ corn and soybean crops in good condition despite last week’s extreme heat.
“They have moisture to draw on, and the plant population is there”, said Volk, who grows spring wheat, corn, soybeans, barley and pinto beans on 4,000 acres near Rugby. Corn reported in the “dough” stage was reported at 30 percent vs. 25 percent a year ago vs. 25 percent on average.
“The proportion of U.S corn rated in good to excellent condition added to the bearish tone”, said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, adding that updated weather models are also favorable. The next crop production forecasts, based on conditions as of August 1, will be released on August 12.
China’s National Grain Trade Center reportedsales of 21,138 tonnes of corn at an auction of state reserves, out of a total of 1,937,895 tonnes available. Outstanding export sales are large enough for exports to reach that level, but with just under seven weeks left in the year, shipments will need to average about 52.5 million bushel per week to reach that level. “There is no reprieve at this point from the burdensome corn stocks that are hanging over our heads”.
The USDA suggested an average farm gate price of $3.60-$3.70 for 2015/16 corn and $3.10-$3.70 per bushel for 2016/17 corn. The 19-market Thomson Reuters CoreCommodity CRB Index fell 0.5 percent and hit its lowest since April. This elevator last offered a basis of 35 cents under in September 2013 – otherwise the basis has been wider since then. Export inspections for the six weeks that ended July 14 averaged 54.3 million bushels per week, a pace slightly higher than needed to reach the USDA projection.
Oat production is forecast at 8.64 million bushels, down 17 percent from a year ago. The International Grains Council on Thursday boosted is outlook for combined global stockpiles of wheat, corn and other grains by 1.2 percent, predicting an even bigger all-time high.
Jensen encourages farmers to also pay attention to the value of the dollar and interest rates, moving ahead.
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“Right now, the market is so focused on supply”.
