NOAA now predicts a 70 percent chance of 12-17 named storms, five to eight of them hurricanes and two to four of those Category 3 strength or greater. We normally see the most activity between mid-August and mid-October, with the general peak considered to be September 10.
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A tropical wave dubbed Invest 98 off the coast of western Africa bears a 50% chance of forming into the next named system of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season by the end of the work week. In the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave has emerged just south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Despite weather conditions over the eastern Atlantic Ocean now being favorable for further development, Invest 98 doesn’t appear slated to pose much of a risk to the United States. At this point, the bulk of the models (spaghetti plots) show the storm turning northwest and not entering the gulf. It’s forecast to move west northwest and then northwest into the open waters of the Atlantic, keeping it well away from our area.
TD6 is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm (Fiona) during the day Friday.
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During the hurricane season, these easterly waves can act to initiate convection and potentially be the catalyst to tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean.
