Scientists say their atmospheric and ocean data point to a “significant and strengthening El Niño”.
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Forecasters now believe the West is in for historic El Nino conditions this winter, but they still caution that even a wet year won’t end California’s drought.
The average temperature between December and February was 33.2 degrees and snowfall for the entire season was recorded at 29.6, 7.4 inches below normal. During the previous El Nino, several citizens residing in areas that were prone to flooding tried to enhance flood insurance before the storms showed up. It’s been unofficially named Bruce Lee after the action hero.
“If [the El Nino] continues to build it will have tremendous impact – not just over North America, but over the entire planet”, Mr Patzert says.
The powerful El Nino over the Pacific Ocean could bring massive, once-in-a-generation storms to Southern California in 2015, according to a new report released Thursday. So, how does the higher ocean temperature here affect the weather there?
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are now predicting a strong El Niño, which would peak in late fall or early winter. When that happens, southern California and northern Mexico experience excessive rainfall, and the Pacific Northwest becomes dry.
“A good year would let us breathe a little”, she said.
There is also the strength and direction of trade winds across the Pacific, which would determine how much warm air moves north.
California’s state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains. Downtown L.A. got almost a year’s worth of rain in February 1998.
PETERSON: California officials are not changing the state’s strict limits on water use based on this forecast.
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“What’s different is that now we’re looking at an El Niño that rivals some of our strongest El Nino’s since 97-98, 82-83 so perhaps giving it a name might do it justice, ‘ said Alex Tardy with the National Weather Service”.
