The current El Nino has, among other things, resulted in sea levels rising in the eastern Pacific and dropping in the west as easterly trade winds stall or reverse. And when the atmosphere is just right it’s a recipe for a very wet winter.
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Even with the anticipated El Nino, California still won’t be clear of the statewide drought.
Forecasters are warning California could be hit by the strongest El Nino season on record later this year.
NOAA said there is a 90 percent chance El Niño will continue through the winter, and about an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.
Mike Halpert is Deputy Director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For the Ohio Valley, El Nino usually brings a mild winter with below normal precipitation. Monsoon moisture has been cited as the cause of several unseasonable rainstorms in parts of California this summer.
“While the current message needs to remain to conserve because the deficits are severe, it probably is a good idea to at least allow the potential that when we get to winter, flooding and landslides could occur”, said Halpert. Typically, as El Nino pulls the jet stream south into California, it leaves the Northwest drier than normal.
An El Niño – meaning in Spanish “the little boy, or Christ child” – is created when the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean warm significantly. “The one constant with Mother Nature is that she’s always changing”, Jacobsen said.
Forecasters say El Nino, the warming of Pacific waters, is on track to become one of the most powerful on record.
“At this point there’s a lot of uncertainty”, Werner said.
“Don’t count on El Nino”, said Marcus.
State Climatologist Michael Anderson agrees.
“The signal that we see in the Pacific from space is actually larger than it was in August of 1997 and so this, potentially, could be the El Nino of our generation”, Patzert warns.
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A strong El Nino could mean above average temperatures and below normal precipitation from December through February. Even if California gets a wet winter this year, it could be followed by another severe multi-year drought. Historical weather data shows us that at best, there is a 50-50 chance of having a wetter winter.
