Environmental conditions were expected to become more conducive for the system to strengthen, and a tropical depression could form “at any time” in the next day or two, the hurricane center said.
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An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into 99L again today.
“Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight and are showing signs of organization, but the system still appears to lack a well-defined circulation”, the advisory said.
“What we’re seeing now is tropical waves going through the cycle, trying to grow and become something”, Senterfitt said.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gaston continues to move over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
“This storm has the potential to become a rapidly intensifying hurricane in 24 hours”, Masters said.
While the ultimate path of the disturbance remains unknown, forecasters are warning people in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida to keep an eye on the system’s progress.
The shearing winds that rip apart incipient tropical storms tend to weaken in August. If it swirls into a tropical storm, it will be named Hermine.
One computer model, the European, shows the storm crossing Florida and emerging as a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by next week, according to WeatherBell meteorologist Ryan Maue.
The hurricane center cautioned, however, that it’s too early to make long-range predictions.
That more storms are coming is nearly a certainty; the question is whether the United States will continue to enjoy a period of record hurricane luck.
The latest update had the center of Tropical Storm Gaston located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 38.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 miles per hour. They have determined wind speeds at the surface of around 45 knots (~52 mph) near the low-level center around 11 a.m. ET. Gaston, further to the east of Invest 99L, has changed little in intensity but is expected turn northward and remain out to sea.
“Some computer models don’t have this system developing much at all, while others bring it to South Florida by Sunday into Monday as a hurricane”, Bridges said.
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Hurricane season continues through November 30.
