According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined circulation, but it was nevertheless producing tropical-storm-force winds in squalls over the northernmost Leeward Islands and adjacent waters. Now known as “Invest 99-L”, the storm is expected to gain the name Hermine soon.
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So far this year, seven named storms have formed and two hurricanes, Alex and Earl.
Invest 99L will be named Hermine if it develops. This storm could become a tropical storm or eventually a tropical depression over the next few days.
NOAA updated its 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Aug. 11, calling for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season. We don’t want to downplay this too much because it could have an impact on our weather if it crosses Florida and reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Some take it up the E. Coast of Florida, while others take it across Central Florida, while still others take it south through the Keys. However, the last hurricane to directly hit the Lowcountry was Gaston in August 2004.
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Regardless of development, squalls to tropical storm force were expected over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the northern U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Wednesday afternoon. The global model keeps it on the weaker side, while the European is more aggressive having a possible tropical storm or hurricane moving through South Florida. Be careful following forecasts that show a hurricane right over Florida next week. Models need a good starting point to get a more accurate end point, so as long as it remains disorganized we don’t have a good idea on track and intensity. “That’s when you can have a more confident forecast and that has not happened yet in the long range”. The two most reliable computer models have vastly different scenarios now.
