The GFS model doesn’t develop the system at all, which I find questionable considering the euro, Canadian and navy models all agree with It intensifying into at least a tropical storm.
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Though southwesterly shear is impeding Gaston’s development, forecasters still expect Gaston to become a hurricane later Wednesday and take a turn toward the northwest before turning north.
A tropical wave forming over the Leeward Islands near the Caribbean has a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within the next five days. Most models are in agreement of the system moving towards the Bahamas late in the week. Tropical Storm Gaston is over the Eastern Atlantic and will not impact any landmasses. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development during the next couple of days. This cluster of storms has a low, 30% chance to form into a tropical cyclone as it moves west northwestward. A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters aircraft is expected to fly over the disturbance sometime Wednesday morning. “It appears more likely that the storm will reach Florida and then go poof over land, or reach Florida and then continue westward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico”. Detailed analysis and updated model information is available on every NBC2 newscast, and an interactive display of spaghetti models and forecast cones is available with our online hurricane tracker. If it swirls into a tropical storm, it will be named Hermine (Her-MEEN).
The shearing winds that rip apart incipient tropical storms tend to weaken in August. The latest update had the center of Tropical Storm Gaston located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 38.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 miles per hour. Similar to Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, the circulation may be disrupted by the mountainous terrain of the islands that make up the Greater Antilles. Forecasters anticipate Gaston will become a hurricane at some point later in the day on Wednesday.
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“It’s too early to say if it will become anything; it could fall apart”, said 10Weather WTSP meteorologist Ashley Batey.
