Right now there is no closed low, so we still are only dealing with a tropical wave.
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“The wave known as Invest 99L that is moving through Cuba will continue to have a hard time organizing over the next couple of days”, News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said. Beyond that, different models are presenting very different scenarios. A tropical wave is located just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Whether 99L organizes or not, the National Hurricane Center cautions that its heavy rains and strong winds will still cause problems as it moves west. It remains well out in the Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the United States. A surface high has stabilized our weather, as northeasterly winds around the high have brought slightly drier air down into Georgia.
The National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 99-L a 70 percent chance of development over the next five days.
A tropical wave has fizzled out north of Cuba and won’t have time to reorganize into a tropical storm or hurricane before hitting Florida, forecasters say.
The tropical wave is moving west-northwest at 10 miles per hour and is now being hindered in its development by upper-level winds.
The storm’s maximum sustained winds early Friday are near 65 miles per hour. If this system forms into a tropical storm, it would be called Hermine. Brooks, Chita and I are monitoring each new model run and assessing what it means for you. The biggest question is the intensity of the system at that time.
Ocean waters could become very risky, especially for small craft and cruise ships from the northeastern coast of Cuba through much of the Bahamas during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The forecast track for Lester takes this system westward.
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99L was expected to move near south Florida and the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico, where forecasters think it could have a better chance of development. A weaker system has a higher chance of traveling further west than northwest. “That’s good. As long as the shear holds true, I don’t see any significant intensification over the next few days or even into the weekend”, he said. It could fall apart and dissipate in the next 24 to 48 hours. Eventually, it will transform into a full-blown storm. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two. Where it goes after that is the main question.
