The good news today is that the system appears to have weakened.
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“As we get closer, we’ll know more”.
Additionally, water temperatures are well above the threshold for Tropical development.
In their most recent predictions, NOAA expects 12 to 17 named storms, with five to eight hurricanes, two to four of them being major hurricanes.
Weather officials estimate the tropical system, now known as Invest 99-L, will hit the Bahamas by Friday and could arrive in South Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday or Monday.
A ridge of high pressure building over the East Coast is expected to nudge the storm to the west, said Mark Malisck, S.C. Climate Office severe weather liaison. What does seem likely is heavy rain for parts of the Caribbean and even into Florida. Upper-level winds are hindering development. Winds are now sustained at 40 miles per hour and the system is headed west northwest just over 20 miles per hour.
More than 95 percent of all major hurricanes, or those with winds topping 111 miles per hour, fall from mid-August through early-October, a time when tropical waters are warm and thus ripe to serve as fuel for storm like conditions.
This scenario could lead to inches of rain, strong winds and potential storm surge depending on the exact track of the storm. The biggest question is the intensity of the system at that time. The large size of the system will likely take time for the system to develop. First, if a low’s center cannot be determined easily, the models will have a hard time initializing the low and, therefore, could limit the capacity to determine a future track. This model has been the most reliable as of lately. A weaker system has a higher chance of traveling further west than northwest.
Continue to watch this through the weekend and have preparations completed should a storm move our way. It could fall apart and dissipate in the next 24 to 48 hours. How strong the system becomes remains to be seen.
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Historically, about one third of all landfalling hurricanes hit during the month of August and 44 percent hit during the month of September.
