It’s a system that has been getting the most attention throughout the week because the other storm in the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Gaston, was expected to stay out at sea. As a result we are not expecting any organization as it moves toward Florida Sunday.
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Lester’s hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles (35 kilometers) from its center, and tropical-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 kilometers). Gaston is the third hurricane of the year and was expected to strengthen Saturday as it moves to a region of reduced wind shear and warmer currents.
The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center track shows Madeline arcing 55 miles north of Hilo on the Big Island and 193 miles east of Camp H.M. Smith on the principal island of Oahu around 8 p.m. Wednesday, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts.
The National Hurricane Center now estimates the probability of this system becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours at 10 percent.
It is expected to continue moving west-northwestward over the weekend, and could become a hurricane on Monday.
A newly formed tropical depression is likely to strengthen into a hurricane and could pass over or near Hawaii as a tropical storm next week.
On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center slightly downgraded the tropical wave’s chance of forming into a storm to 40 percent over the next two days and 70 percent over the next five days. It is still in an area that has some shearing that is not allowing the system to get stronger.
Tropical Depression 14E is moving west-northwest at 12 mph, about 1,305 miles east-southeast of Hilo at 11 a.m. Heavy rain could still persist in the area leading to mudslides and flash flooding especially to some parts of the Caribbean, Hispaniola and central Cuba. The odds of tropical formation within 5 days is 30%. People should also have storm supplies and an emergency plan in place, whether or not the storm hits Hawaii.
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Lester was moving west-northwest at 9 miles per hour.
