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USDA: Expected corn yield lower than 2014
Cornstalks on Dale Pitstick’s Illinois farm are yellowing, and leaves are starting to shrivel. “There was a lot of concern there would be more damage”.
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Old-crop soybean sales of 3.5 million were an improvement from the previous week’s net reduction.
This year’s soybean crop is forecast to come in at 133 million bushels, down 7 percent. In July, the federal government pegged manufacturing at three.
“I’m not writing an obit on these markets yet”, said William Moore, senior account analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “Rain makes grain until it doesn’t”. Since then, parts of the Midwest have been unusually dry.
U.S. soybean growers are now forecast produce the second largest crop on record although one percent less than a year ago. If realized, the yield will be the highest on record, beating out the total yield of 2010. Soybean yield is expected to average 36 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels from last year’s record yield. This suggests a 4% increase over past year.
Conditions aren’t uniformly worse.
“What we have in this report is better than expected”, Hurt explained.
Futures prices plunged following the USDA report. Inventories before the 2016 harvest may fall 19 percent, the biggest drop since 2011, the Bloomberg survey showed.
Farmers and ranchers 14 more counties also qualify for natural disaster assistance because their counties are contiguous to the primary disaster areas. Cumulative ethanol production this year is 4.6 percent ahead of the pace last marketing season.
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Grain markets staggered under a “historic” upward revision of US harvest expectations on Wednesday, where markets had been expecting a sizable cut to hopes.
While ground in the Missouri River bottoms doesn’t look very good, the corn and beans growing on hills looks strong in northeast Nebraska, he said.
“A wetter shift in the pattern next week would help replenish soil moisture and would be favourable for corn and soy crops” said Kyle Tapley, of MDA Weather Services. While about 65 percent of the plants are in good condition, 15 percent look “horrible”, and 20 percent are somewhere in between.
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In light of that conclusion, we’re still left with having to trade the USDA’s figures until the release of the September WASDE report at the earliest, which won’t be out until September 11th.