An area of storms directly south of Hawaii is not expected to intensify. Global models have shown “run-to-run inconsistency” towards days 4 and 5, the time Madeline is expected to track near the Hawaiian Islands.
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At 0900 Saturday, Madeline’s center was located about 1,160 miles (1,865 kilometers) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and moving towards the west-northwest at a speed of 10 miles (17 kilometers) per hour.
Its current path in the central Pacific could coincide with Obama’s planned visit to Hawaii for the kickoff of the World Conservation Congress, a major meeting including thousands of heads of state, scientists and policy makers.
Still following behind Madeline is Hurricane Lester, the cloud pattern of which has increased some in organization during the last several hours.
Forecasters say Tropical Cyclone Lester could impact the islands during Labor Day weekend. Sustained winds reached up to 60 miles per hour.
Tropical Storm Madeline picked up speed as it headed towards Hawaii on Sunday, while Hurricane Lester tore west from the Mexican mainland across the Pacific, US monitors reported.
Forecasters said, however, that models show a great deal of uncertainty about the path of Madeline, which they are tracking closely. The convention, scheduled for September 1 to 10, is expected to bring in several other dignitaries as well as heightened security and road closures around the Hawaii Convention Center and the Neal S. Blaisdell Center.
Madeline remains on a northwest track, at 10 miles per hour, and continues picking up steam, now 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts.
Meanwhile, Lester was located 1,875 miles east of Hilo and 2,060 miles east-southeast of Honolulu as of 5 p.m. on Sunday.
Trailing Madeline by about 1,000 miles east is Hurricane Lester, which is now on a westerly path at 12 mph, just past Clarion Island, and also headed in Hawaii’s general direction.
Madeline is expected to travel over or near the Big Island on Wednesday, carrying heavy rain and strong winds, according to the US National Weather Service.
Forecasters noted that the margin of error for Central Pacific tropical cyclones can vary between 185 and 250 miles on the fourth and fifth days of the forecast track.
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“Anything can change, so we just hope that it stays on this forecast track”, Lau said.
