Halpert stated the forecast “continues the expectation of a robust El Nino through the late fall and winter with El Nino lasting till the spring”.
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Weathermen are unanimous in saying that this El Nino is gearing up to be a record-setter, because of increasing warmth in the key part of the Pacific in the last three months. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average chances for a warmer-than-usual winter.
A weather forecast suggests the Pacific Ocean’s strengthening El Nino, warming the water, has the potential to be the strongest on record.
Some scientists blame that “blob” for everything from the drought in the West to colder temperatures in the East and changes to marine life.
Experts said El Nino was one of the factors which contributed to the so-called “Big Freeze” but there were others. The x-axis is just a few days before the beginning of the completion of the El Nino cycle.
“It’s important to bear in mind that the correlation between El Nino and precipitation are far from ideal, even in places with relatively high correlations such as Southern California and Arizona”, Werner said.
While a heavy downpour of rain might sound heavenly to Californians, Mike Halper of the NOAA says: “There’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day”. For southwestern states, like California, this pattern nearly always translates to periods of heavy precipitation (something drought-stricken California could use, actually).
Then, too much rain arriving too fast caused widespread flooding, mudslides and billions of dollars of damage. “As a result you tend to have less mountain snow pack, and after this past weather season with such a meager snow pack, that can be a problem for our water supply”.
El Nino was blamed for California’s extreme weather in 1997/98.
Halpert said that temperature benchmark could reach or exceed 2 degrees above normal, something that has happened only three times in recent decades.
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Still, the stronger an El Nino is – and this one appears to solidly fit that category – the better the chances. “Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we can not even be that sure”, he said. El Nino is, after all, but one of many large-scale drivers of our weather!
