The other disturbance, associated with a broad area of low pressure, has formed about 200 miles south of Bermuda, the hurricane center said. The odds of tropical formation within 5 days is also 10%.
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The National Hurricane Center now gives this tropical disturbance a 20 percent chance of developing into something more significant, which is great news (it was up to 80% a few days ago). Gaston’s tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 kilometers from the center. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially estimated the Atlantic would see between 10 and 16 storms this year, but recently updated its prediction to 17. This low is forecast to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 miles per hour toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days, but any development is likely to be slow to occur due to the system’s proximity to dry air.
The latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center track shows Madeline arcing 55 miles north of Hilo on the Big Island and 193 miles east of Camp H.M. Smith on the principal island of Oahu around 8 p.m. Wednesday, still packing 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts.
“The wave known as Invest 99L that is moving through Cuba will continue to have a hard time organizing over the next couple of days”, News 6 meteorologist Troy Bridges said. Additional strengthening is forecast and Lester is likely to become a hurricane on Friday.
However, there are no coastal watches or warnings because Lester is moving west into the Pacific at a speed of 9 miles (15 kilometers) per hour. This means there is less of a threat for direct landfall and possible tropical storm in Florida.
The weather service says the average 5-day track forecast error is about 170 miles. If it continues west, it could fizzle as it gets ripped apart over the mountains of Cuba.
Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola today.
The National Weather Service Charleston office does not expect any hazardous weather in the near future and low probability for widespread, hazardous weather through Thursday.
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At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Lester was 530 miles southwest of Baja California with sustained winds of 70 mph.
