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TRACKING THE TROPICS: Tropical system moving through Bahamas

Tropical Storm Lester off the northwest Mexican coast strengthened to hurricane status yesterday, the US National Hurricane Center said.

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99L earlier this week had a high chance of developing into a depression or storm, but those chances had been lowered to 60 percent on Friday, and the system showed no signs of getting any better organized.

Tropical Storm Madeline continues on a northwest trajectory, but is forecast to make a left turn and make a beeline between the Big Island and Maui sometime Wednesday into Thursday, as a severe tropical storm, and perhaps not the hurricane that Hawaii hasn’t seen in 23 years.

The tropical wave between the southeastern Bahamas and the northeastern coast of Cuba remains unorganized but continues to blow toward Florida. Some development may occur when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Conditions are not expected to get any better today as it moves to the west around 13 miles per hour.

The system is expected to deliver gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to parts of the Bahamas, spreading into southern Florida and the Florida Keys, over the weekend.

Heavy rain from this storm may bring flash floods and mud slides to HIspaniola and Cuba.

The weather service says the average 5-day track forecast error is about 170 miles.

Lester’s hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles (35 kilometres) from its centre, and tropical-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 kilometres).

A second disturbance is being tracked in the north-central Gulf of Mexico, but it has little chance of forming into a tropical cyclone before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. This low is producing only a few showers and storms to the south and east of the of the center.

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Madeline’s center is located about 1,235 miles (1,990 kilometers) east of Hilo, Hawaii and moving towards the west-northwest at a speed of 12 miles (19 kilometers) per hour.

Tropical system could threaten Florida, Gulf states