The National Hurricane Center now give the system – located between the Bahamas and Cuba’s northeast coast and moving west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour – a 30 percent chance of development over the next two days, and 60 percent chance over the next five.
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A tropical wave was moving through the western Atlantic and toward the coast of Florida on Friday morning, but it was looking less likely that it would become Hermine anytime soon.
According to the National Hurricane Center, there’s a 30 percent or “low” chance that Invest 99 will develop into an organized formation over the next 48 hours.
The low is forecast to continue on a W-NW track this weekend, and there is a chance it could get into the Straits of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical wave.
“Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba during the next couple of days”, said the advisory. According to the NHC, it will bring locally heavy rain to parts of Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica and South Florida into the weekend.
For the Leeward and Virgin Islands some squalls brought gusts up to tropical storm strength – 39 miles per hour in Tortola and 54 miles per hour in St Marteen. So, as we head into the weekend and early next week, we need to keep a very close eye on 99L’s track and strength. The U.S. National Hurricane Center says strengthening is forecast during the next two days and Gaston could re-strengthen to a hurricane by Friday night or on Saturday.
As of this most recent update Gaston was located approximately 1,160 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, near latitude 20.4 north and longitutde 44.4 west. It was not expected to make a direct impact on Bermuda.
Invest 99L, the unnamed tropical mess rumbling through the Caribbean, continues its uncertain journey toward the Gulf of Mexico.
As the system approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico, however, conditions will become more favorable for development, and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next five days.
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The chances of development were only 10 percent.
