The chances of food shortages and extreme price hikes could triple by 2040 due to increasing extreme and erratic weather brought about by climate change, according to task force of British and American experts.
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Extreme weather could lead to severe food shocks. In the event that the frequently-modifying climate influences the variability of agricultural productions through the years, this signifies that the costs of the goods may face instabilities within seasons and that the foundations of the food system may be induced to prolonged challenges. They are also calling for an end to the use of biofuel-the production of which involves taking land that would have been used for food production, and instead using it to produce fuel, which hurts countries which already don’t produce as much food as they need themselves. Climate change can also be the offender within the extinction of many animals.
“If we are coping with demand increase by sustainable intensification, but then we suddenly have a catastrophic year, and we lose a big chunk of the world’s calories, everybody will feel it”. Should prices rise 50-100%, those people would be in a position the researchers call “untenable”.
But while larger economies would be less directly impacted and more able to absorb rising food prices, he said “countries like the UK and the US are very much exposed to the indirect consequences”.
Though technological advances and globalization have made food production and distribution more efficient, King said on the report that the system is now more susceptible to risks.
The authors of the report recommend creating global contingency plans, developing better modelling methods to accurately predict the effects of production shocks, and identifying worldwide trading “pinch points” in order to minimise the impact and size of shocks. In 1988/89, droughts in the US and South America lead to drops in the production of maize and soybean by 12 per cent and 8.5 per cent respectively.
An increasing demand will put a heavy strain on the global food resources by 2050 – 60 percent more than the current status – and the main reason will be the population expansion and the great number of people that will escape poverty and move to the middle class.
“The climate is changing and weather records are being broken all the time”, said UK Special Representative for Climate Change David King.
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The report said that efforts were needed to improve the functioning of global markets, bolster national resilience to market shocks and to develop agriculture so it was more resilient to a changing climate.
