Lester was upgraded to a tropical storm over the past 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds at 50 mph (45 kts). “At that point, the models diverge, with the GFS and European model predicting that the ridge of high pressure steering the storm will weaken, allowing 99L to turn more to the north”. Upper-level winds are hindering development.
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Early Thursday the NHC announced on its website that Gaston had become “the third hurricane of the Atlantic Season”.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday the system now over the Bahamas has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday.
Many models forecast the disturbance will likely continue moving west-northwest in the general direction of the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and then possibly South Florida into the weekend.
The meteorologists said the movement could be a substantial tropical storm when it hits Florida next week.
The latest report from the National Weather Service says there’s a 70 percent chance Invest 99 will develop into a tropical system in the next few days.
Johnson predicted 1 to 3 inches of rain for the region, with the potential of 4 inches in some areas, “but it’s going to depend on how it develops”. The forecast track keeps it over open water through the next five days.
The storm is centered about 1,195 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and is moving northwest near 17 mph.
The National Hurricane Center is allowed to reuse names of previous storms as long as the storm was not a substantial hurricane.
A separate disturbance now in the western Gulf of Mexico has a low chance of tropical storm formation – 10% – as it spreads showers toward the Texas Gulf Coast over the weekend. “Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles”.
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season is reaching its peak period of activity.
