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State Elections: is the end nigh for Angela Merkel?

With general elections just a year from now, AfD is emerging as a threat to Merkel’s authority, as it polls above 12 percent nationwide.

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Although AfD has performed strongly in several other regional elections, most notably coming in second with 24% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt in March, it’s an unprecedented moment in modern German politics that the CDU is set to finish behind a party so far to its right on most issues. The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party clinched nearly 21 percent in its first bid for seats in the regional parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday.

It was beaten by a far-right party that was founded in 2013.

The CDU suffered one of its worst electoral defeats when it fell to third place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern behind the centre-left Social Democrats and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD). “What was not possible yesterday has become possible: the patriots of the AfD have swept away Mrs Merkel’s party”, Marine Le Pen of the right-wing Front National tweeted late Sunday. While her welcoming stance initially won much praise, the mood has since considerably darkened as popular worries have grown about how to integrate the newcomers.

The AfD has capitalised on such fears, especially since a spate of sexual assaults blamed on North African men on New Year’s Eve, and a series of bloody attacks this summer, some claimed by the Islamic State group.

Although her home constituency of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania is one of the least populous German states, the outcome highlighted the extent to which her decision past year to open Germany’s doors to a historic influx of asylum seekers has boosted the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Sunday’s election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was seen as symbolically important as it was in Merkel’s home constituency.

“It’ll take time before all our measures work, and it’ll take time before the trust we have lost can be won back”, the party’s general secretary Peter Tauber said on Monday.

The SPD leader and vice-chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, has systematically attacked Merkel’s motto of “we can do it” on refugees.

Merkel took responsibility for the result and said a failure to convince many concerned citizens about the government’s refugee policy played a role. “This was more than a small state election, it was a vote on Merkel”, said news site Spiegel Online, pointing at the “protest storm” in “Merkel’s living room”.

That, she said, meant not just refugee issues, but economic issues and questions of “social cohesion” too.

Charlotte Knobloch, head of the Jewish Community of Munich and Upper Bavaria and World Jewish Congress commissioner for Holocaust memory, said: “That an extreme-right party which blatantly incites hatred against minorities in a disgusting way can rise unhindered in our country is a nightmare come true”.

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AfD polls between 11 and 14 percent nationally and appears strongest in the ex-communist east.

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