The latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey found that business activity among New York’s manufacturers in August tumbled to the lowest level since 2009, during the Great Recession. At the same time, New York manufacturers were the most optimistic about the future than at any time in the past four months, a sign the slowdown is likely to be short-lived.
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The S&P 500 gained 0.7 percent last week, with the benchmark index erasing its gain for the year before staging the biggest intraday turnaround in three years.
The consensus forecast among economists polled by Bloomberg was for a general business conditions index reading of 4.50, up from 3.9. 9 in July, with a destructive studying indicating a contraction in manufacturing exercise.
“We know that conditions have been weak for a number of months now, certainly until recently the high value of the dollar had been impacting manufacturers, and there may have been some other factors going on as well, but this month seemed to be particularly bad”.
Labor market indicators, meanwhile, pointed to little change in employment and hours worked, the report said.
The shipments index also plunged to a negative 13.8 in August from a positive 7.9 in July, indicating a downturn in shipments.
The prices paid index fell to 7.27 from 7.45 July, while prices received fell to 0.91 from 5.32 the previous month.
The index for number of employees edged down one point to 1.8, and the average workweek index fell to -1.8.
Looking ahead, however, the New York Fed said the indexes for future activity still showed a fair degree of optimism about the six-month outlook.
The next few regional Fed surveys may help determine that.
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Yet some U.S. economists had some skepticism regarding the figures from the Empire State index since recent manufacturing data nationwide showed a rebounding in the industry.
