The National Hurricane Center was monitoring three tropical waves, however, and one had better chances than the others of developing into something more.
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The wave remained pretty disorganized on Thursday morning, but conditions could change and allow gradual development, forecasters said.
For a tropical cyclone to form, there needs to be persistent convection, or thunderstorm activity, near a surface low-pressure circulation.
The hurricane center said a small area of disturbed weather and a weak area of low pressure formed between Cuba and the western Bahamas.
The disturbance moving into the open Atlantic has a better chance of developing over the next five days, but this will ultimately end up curling north and stay away from the US mainland, according to the Hurricane Center.
“The long-range models are showing a west-northwesterly track for this storm into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America”, Masters wrote in his blog.
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The chances of development were 10 percent over the next five days. It will escape the influence of the upper-level trough and will be moving toward a ridge of high pressure aloft by the weekend. It’s also too soon to tell what, if any, impact the system might have on Florida. It could turn harmlessly into the open waters of the Atlantic over time, but we will continue to monitor the situation.
