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Slowdown in Job Creation Keeps Traders Guessing on Rates
The report comes some two weeks before the USA central bank’s Sept 20-21 meeting.
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The 89 estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 92,000 to 255,000 after a previously reported 255,000 July increase. The rise in payrolls reinforces views that the economy has regained speed after nearly stalling in the first half of the year.
In a Reuters poll, economists had a consensus forecast of payrolls escalating 180,000 in the month prior and the unemployment rate sliding one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8%. “It confirms that the economy is performing well, but does not provide the threat of overheating that might have caused an interest-rate increase sooner rather than later”. That no time frame was given in her August speech suggests a lack of conviction on the Fed’s part. Higher borrowing rates tend to weigh down stock prices.
Hiring in the United States eased in August, with the government reporting on Friday that employers had expanded their payrolls by 151,000 workers.
But the Democratic National Committee said the employment report was further proof of the sound economic policies of the Obama administration.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and other Fed officials highlighted the economy’s improvement at a conference last month.
The economy added 151,000 new positions in August, a sharp drop from July’s revised total of 275,000 new non-farm positions and also well below analyst expectations.
Most analysts and investors predict the Fed will stand pat at its meeting later this month and postpone any rate hike until December. The August payroll data showed wages up just 2.4% on the year.
Despite the soft report, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker on Friday said the US economy appears strong enough to warrant significantly higher interest rates. But wage growth is expected to be moderate.
Average hourly earnings for all employees rose by three cents to $25.73, with a 2.4 percent increase over the year.
Americans worked fewer hours last month, with the average workweek dipping 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours.
The labor force participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, will also be scrutinized for signs of when wage growth will accelerate. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. On the Nasdaq, 1,354 issues rose and 895 fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 111.49 points, or 0.6 percent, to 18,530.79. The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of US manufacturing activity dropped more than expected, falling into contraction territory, while employment in construction and manufacturing shed a combined 20,000 jobs last month, and the average workweek in manufacturing declined by 0.2 hour to 40.6 hours.
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US employers have added jobs at a 182,000 monthly pace so far this year.