Croats have begun casting ballots in an early parliamentary election that is unlikely to produce a clear victor and could pave the way for more political uncertainty in the European Union’s newest member state.
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Senior HDZ member Gordan Jandrokovic said the party had enough support to form a government with Bridge and smaller factions including the party of Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic, which won two seats, and minority lawmakers.
Additionally, the nationalist turn of the previous HDZ coalition – along with a spying scandal, a statue of a controversial Croatian figure, and a contentious exhibition in Brussels, to name a few cases – put a strain on its relationship with neighboring Serbia.
“After such a victory, we are the party that will have a chance to form a stable, future Croatian government in the next four years”, HDZ leader Andrej Plenkovic said.
The conservative party also faces a tough fight from the Social Democrats (SDP), whose leader Zoran Milanovic still hopes of forming the government. The European MP stressed he wants to lead the country in a more moderate direction, continuing economic reforms that are at the basis of the country’s recovery.
“Although more moderate in discourse and favoring a strong pro-EU approach, the exit poll result shows Plenković has succeeded to bring together both HDZ’s hard-right and centrist voters without the help of hard-right coalition partners” said Luka Orešković, associate partner at investment and advisory firm Spitzberg.
“We are happy”, Plenkovic said upon casting his ballot.
The HDZ is tipped to get 61 seats in Croatia’s 151-seat Parliament, while its mail rival will win 54 seats.
Hours before the polls closed, the turnout was almost 10 percent less than in November. The radical, anti-establishment Living Wall (Živi Zid) won eight seats, far higher than expected.
The snap vote was called in the EU’s youngest member state after the previous coalition government collapsed in June.
Another snap election in the EU’s youngest member is a possibility, which would affect the implementation of a reform program meant to boost the economy after six years of recession.
But party officials were cautious, warning that the initial results, skewed towards rural districts that are the HDZ’s traditional strongholds, may yet change. However, unemployment hovers around 14 percent, among the highest in the European Union, and much of the fiscal growth is attributed to tourism along Croatia’s Adriatic coast.
After suffering prolonged recession before and after joining the European Union in 2013, Croatia is now showing signs of a return to modest growth, but much of the economy remains moribund and unemployment is stuck at about 14 per cent.
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“Our current growth potential is 1.5-2.5 percent, but we need at least 3.5-4.0 percent for new jobs and better living standards”, said Raiffeisen analyst Zrinka Zivkovic Matijevic.
