U.S. 2016 corn production was forecast at 15,093 million bus, down 60 million bus from 15,153 million bus forecast in August but up 11% from 13,601 million bus in 2015, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its September 12 Crop Production report.
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Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record 50.6 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from last month and up 2.6 bushels from past year. The corn yield forecast was reduced by 5 bushels for South Dakota and Tennessee, but increased by 6 bushels for Kansas, and five bushels for MI. Argentine corn production is expected to grow by 335 million bushels (30%). The number is down 61 million bushels from the August report. Use for food was 968 million bushels, seed was 69 million bushels, feed and residual was 330 million bushels.
Today’s numbers “put a cap on any rallies” in corn and soybean prices, said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines.
USDA left its domestic wheat end stocks view unchanged in its supply and demand report, roughly in line with market expectations. Stocks at the projected level represent 16.5% of projected marketing year consumption, the largest ratio in 11 years, but still modest by historic standards.
This is still a sharp reduction from last year, and a five year low for stocks. The U.S.D.A. soybean production number also was above the pre-report average of 4,100 million bus and the trade yield average of 49.4 bus an acre.
Additionally the report says that Colorado’s sorghum crop is down from last year – it is forecast at 15.6 million bushels, down 2 percent last month and down 29 percent from the 22 million bushels harvested last year.
Soybean 2016-17 ending stocks were also raised.
Soybean exports, on the other hand, were increased 60 million bushels to a record 1.9 billion bushels, based on trade indications and a “record high August export inspections”. The stock market continued to just move sideways in a tight range, holding steady near the all-time highs.
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Wheat gained for a fourth session out five on short-covering and expectations of improved demand for US shipments after prices dropped to a 10-year low last month.
