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Donald Trump pledges 4% economic growth. How realistic is that?
Trump said his team has determined that “growth-induced savings from trade, energy, and regulation reform” could cut $1.8 trillion from the $4.4 trillion cost of his plan.
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The biggest surprise in the economic policy speech Donald Trump delivered in NY on Thursday wasn’t in his list of tax breaks, spending increases or his promises of “amazing” economic growth.
Trump also laid out a blueprint to create 25 million new jobs in a decade, which would be more than three times as many as created since 2006. And according to an accompanying fact sheet released by the Trump campaign, the businessman turned White House aspirant plans to dramatically scale back government regulations, including food safety and environmental measures, in order to save nearly $1 trillion over the next decade. He set a goal of 4 percent annual economic growth.
While responding to critics that his previous tax and growth plans were vague and unrealistic, Trump nonetheless raised questions about how he could achieve such rapid economic growth – former candidate Jeb Bush was derided for promising 4% growth – and pay for what are still very large tax cuts to individuals and businesses.
The plan Trump announced on Thursday is dramatically less profligate.
Along with hitting Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton as a nominee who would help only “the donors and special interests” as president, Trump continued to push his own proposal as a family affair – crediting daughter Ivanka Trump not just on her role in creating his childcare plan but also for her help on his economics plan as a whole. However, his plan would still tax capital gains held until death, though the first $10 million would be exempt. “And my great economists don’t want me to say this, but I think we can do better than that”.
Donald Trump’s new economic plan is built on typical hyperbole.
Pence also reiterated the Trump campaign claim that the Republican nominee wouldn’t release his tax returns until the IRS finished a current audit, a stance that’s been challenged in recent days by LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who’s offered to donate up to million to veterans groups if Trump releases the returns by October 19.
Trump also vowed Thursday to not cut defense spending and to exempt Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from any reductions. On Thursday, he unveiled several tweaks to his broader plan that appeared largely aimed at reducing its impact on the budget.
While much of his plan remains the same as when he discussed it in August, Trump has changed some of the details over time.
“We are going to turn this around”, he said of the economy.
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David McIntosh, the president of the conservative Club for Growth, hailed the plan, saying it “should be the centerpiece of what he runs on”. “We reject the pessimism that says our standard of living can no longer rise, and that all that’s left to do is divide up and redistribute our shrinking resources”. Trump would indeed eliminate the carried interest perk, but he’d replace it with a plan that would allow fund managers to bring down their tax rate all the way to 15 percent. The 3 new brackets will be 12, 25 and 33, but low-income Americans will pay no income tax at all – in fact, our plan will remove millions and millions of workers from the income tax rolls entirely.