No. 3 MI, seemingly on the way to a showdown with traditional powerhouse rival Ohio State in their regular-season finale, stumbled late Saturday night at Iowa, losing 14-13 on a last-second field goal. Washington lost at home to USC 26-13 to round out the trifecta.
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The biggest losers from Saturday are two SEC teams: Texas A&M and Auburn. The Tigers had zero second-half first downs in Saturday’s 13-7 defeat at Georgia. You can take the four Group of Five teams already mentioned, Boise, SDSU, Troy and WMU, out of the equation as no one-loss team from that group will ever get playoff consideration, nor will an undefeated MAC school. So if Clemson wins out, the Tigers likely have a shot to be considered in the same boat as the Buckeyes.
Entering this weekend, we had four undefeated Power-5 conference teams.
A year ago Michigan State was unbeaten and No. 7 in the CFP until an upset loss on November 7 at Nebraska. If they win the conference, the question then becomes whether the committee would take them as a 12-1 conference champion, or look in another direction. They both have one loss.
So Swartzlander’s $2 bet turned into $792 profit after Pitt beat Clemson (43-42), Iowa knocked off MI (14-13) and USC topped Washington (26-13). Even then Louisville might have to make a case against a Wisconsin team with a Big Ten championship and a victory against 16th-ranked LSU. Although Jim Harbaugh never likes to lose, MI is still in prime position to make the College Football Playoff if they can win their last three games: home to in, at Ohio State, and then the Big 10 Championship Game. But things are also tricky moving forward. Ohio State now can not win the Big Ten East and therefore can not go to the conference title game unless Penn State also loses a game (unlikely since the Nittany Lions play Rutgers and Michigan State to close out the season). Clemson on the other hand, went on the road to face a preseason Top 15 team in Auburn – and they won.
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Strength of schedule – or lack thereof – was likely a major factor in Washington’s drop from No. 4 to No. 6 this week. Well, that miracle happened on Saturday. And the outlook has shifted to such an extent in the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 that the committee could confront the most hard decisions it has faced in the three years of the CFP. With Clemson’s loss especially, the Cardinals once again have life in their quest to make the College Football Playoff. They finish the regular season on the road against Purdue and at home against Minnesota. Don’t forget, Ohio State and MI still play each other. It means that despite all the upsets Saturday, Alabama is still No. 1, by a country mile (or kilometres). It’s not an upset of national title outcome, but the Tar Heels’ hopes to advance to the ACC Championship Game are greatly diminished. Their only loss comes at Clemson by a single score and they still looked impressive in that loss. In fact, Clemson has five wins this season by seven points or fewer. Watson threw some critical, untimely interceptions against the Pitt Panthers- and now the ACC will only get one team into the playoffs- certainly not two. Clemson has the tiebreaker but Louisville is playing better.
