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Rise in German Business Morale Masks China Risks Ahead
A slowdown in China has the potential to significantly crimp demand for oil and other commodities, a ripple effect that could dampen global economic growth.
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The strong sentiment reading of 108 found by the survey exceeded a consensus forecast by Reuters and came soon after official figures showed rising exports outstripped gains in imports in the second quarter this year.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index, which slumped 5.4 percent on Monday, was up 4.1 percent at 1120 GMT, as was the blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index. “China is an important economic partner for all of us in the European Union”, she said at a news conference with her counterparts from France and Ukraine. Analysts had predicted a slight lower to 107.6 factors.
Exports drove much of the German economy’s 0.4 percent expansion in the second quarter of 2015, Bloomberg reported on Monday, meaning that falling confidence in China could push Germany back towards zero or negative growth.
Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING-DiBa said “German companies remain unimpressed by the current series of uncertainties and turmoil”, in an email to investors.
“The German economy continues to be a rock in turbulent waters”, Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn said.
Individually, Germany introduced a price range surplus of 21.1 billion euros ($24.26 billion) within the first half of the yr on wholesome tax income and a windfall from the sale of cellphone frequencies.
However, one piece of data that partially blighted the outlook was a fall in the expectations component of the survey, its fourth drop in five months.
Germany’s public finances “continued to profit from the favorable employment situation and positive growth, as well as moderate spending”, Destatis said. “However, the companies were somewhat less optimistic regarding future business”.
“The geographical diversification of German exporters ought to cushion any additional weakening of Chinese language demand”, he stated.
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Chinese stocks have tumbled on fears about the lack of policy action from Beijing in response to data suggesting the downturn in the world’s second-biggest economy is deepening.