The world’s population, now clocking in at 7.3 billion, could go north of 13 billion by century’s end, according to new research.
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However, the UN estimates that the populations of the 48 least-developed nations, of which 27 are in Africa, will grow faster than other parts of the world.
Wilmoth, director of the United Nations Population Division, presented the latest population estimates at an annual meeting of demographers and statisticians in Seattle.
The upshot is that, no, human population growth will not chill any time this century, barring unexpected fertility declines in regions of sub-Saharan Africa with still-exploding birth-rates.
By midcentury there may be 9.7 billion people on Earth.
Nigeria, which is the continent’s most populated country, is projected to quadruple its populations from 182 million to 752 million by 2100.
The continent has grown at a rate of 2.55 per cent per year over the past five years, which means that of the additional 2.4bn people added to the global population between now and 2050, some 1.3bn will be born in Africa, the UN said. The report also projects that the U.S.is expected to expand from 322 million people to 450 million by the turn of the century. Though Africa’s fertility rate has declined for a decade, it is dropping at only a quarter of the rate of decline seen in countries in Asia and Latin America during the 1970s.
Its population is expected to peak around the middle of the century at 5.3 billion, and then decline to 4.9 billion people by the end of the century. Japan and Italy now have the lowest potential support ratios in the world at 2.6 and 2.1 workers for every retiree. These had the world population more or less increasing as it did through the 20th century without slowing, leaving us with 16 billion in the same timeframe.
There is still a significant amount of uncertainty attached to the numbers, but Wilmoth said there is a 90 percent chance Nigeria’s population will exceed 439 million people by 2100. It would cost about .5 billion a year to provide modern contraceptives to all African women between the ages of 15 and 49 who are now unprotected, and unless a system is put into play, the population growth is inevitable.
The results have important policy implications for governments across the globe.
Developing countries with young populations but lower fertility-such as China, Brazil and India-face the prospect of substantial population aging before the end of the century.
Rapid population growth in high-fertility countries can fuel a range of existing problems including pollution, a scarcity of resources, unemployment, poverty, crime and political unrest.
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The projection suggests these countries need to invest over the coming decades in provisions for the older population of the future such as social security, pensions and health care.
