Clemson vs. Alabama matchup in the college football championship projection and Alabama wins 53.4% of the time against the Tigers by an average score of 23-22 according to the simulations. Ohio State still has MI State and a trip to MI before a presumptive showdown with Iowa.
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The college football season has a long ways to go, but if the season were to end today, the College Football Playoff committee’s top-4 teams has one glaring mistake, Notre Dame is in and Baylor is not.
That more than makes up for Alabama’s loss to MS, which fell out of this week’s rankings after a loss to Arkansas. So Alabama did lose one game, but it was to a very good Ole Miss team.
But, like sausage making, it is best not to ask how any of this works.
So schedule strength matters, but it matters more for a few teams than it does for others. The Crimson Tide’s win over LSU was more dominant than the 14-point margin would indicate, and the selection committee seemed to be on board with that.
Consider, if you will, a hypothetical.
Clemson wins out. Ohio State or Iowa wins out, and impresses by beating MI and/or MI State soundly. Complicating Stanford’s dream is the chance that the Big 12 victor – Baylor or No. 8 Oklahoma State – will leapfrog the Cardinal in the final standings. No. 4 Notre Dame, even if it wins out and closes with a victory at Stanford, is going to test the committee’s stated criteria that conference championships matter.
Navy’s only loss is to Notre Dame, and the Midshipmen would remain a factor if they win at Houston and win the American Athletic Conference championship game before finishing against Army. But I don’t know whether Notre Dame or Florida would feel better about its shot.
Clemson (9-0) held the top spot for the second straight week, followed by Alabama (8-1), Ohio State (9-0) and Notre Dame (8-1).
The Fighting Irish, despite their little side deal with the ACC, aren’t in a conference. When the the latest CFP rankings came out, Notre Dame moved into the 4th position with Oklahoma State ranking just 8th.
My point is, it’s fun to either be ranked high by the playoff people and it’s fun to be ranked lower than you think you should be and caw like the orneriest of crows.
Long is just confirming what a lot of the media is thinking; schedule matters.
Baylor and Oklahoma State still have to take care of business, but if either team escapes November without a loss they will still be on the outside looking in if the top four teams also win out.
Baylor has yet to play a team that now has a winning record.
Oh, and Utah lost to that USC team, and by 18. Well they certainly think higher of the Big 12 than does the committee. Suddenly, the Cowboys might not get as big of bump as they did against TCU.
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The top four’s current configuration would give the Orange Bowl a Clemson-Notre Dame matchup.
