Whether this September beats the record minimum Arctic sea ice extent set in September 2012 depends on the weather this summer, which makes predictions hard.
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It was a warm spring for Arctic sea ice, with sea ice extents reaching record low levels in January, February, and April.
And it’s half a million square miles less than the average since 1980 for the time of year – a loss of ice covering an area five times as big as the UK.
However, recent evidence suggests that the Arctic is indeed warming at a much faster rate compared to the rest of Earth and that the region will continue to lose valuable sea ice levels.
However Dr Gleick said Professor Wadhams was right to sound a warning about the rising temperatures in the region, saying it was “extraordinarily disturbing even in a world of disturbing news about accelerating climate change”. Not only is May’s sea ice extent way, way lower than it should be, it’s also the fourth-lowest recorded level in history.
According to Serreze, a rule of thumb in sea ice forecasting holds that the earlier the sea ice melt season starts, the lower the summer sea ice minimum is likely to be.
In other words, this May’s Arctic ice cover was smaller than the previously set record by an area larger than the state of California. In this case, the sea ice is keeping the underlying water cold because the ice is doing its job of reflecting away the heat of the sun from the ocean’s waters.
“All we can say is that we are on a very bad footing”, Serreze told The Washington Post.
New data shows that May saw its lowest-ever sea ice extent, by a significant margin. In an average year, the sea ice thickness at Barrow during the same time of year usually ranges from 55 to 59 inches.
Fragmented ice in the Beaufort Sea in May 2016. This could set up a situation in which open water areas may grow rapidly.
The melting of Arctic sea ice does not directly raise sea levels (because the ice is floating), but it does accelerate the pace of global warming: Ice and snow reflect sunlight; ocean water absorbs it.
Serreze says research is underway to determine what led to the record warmth throughout the winter, and he suspects part of the answer lies in the strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which released vast quantities of stored ocean heat into the atmosphere.
Computer model forecast of temperature anomalies in the Arctic on June 10, 2016, showing continued above average conditions.
All of this has happened during a year that itself is blowing out old records for temperatures averaged across the globe.
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“For a short period in December, sea ice at the North Pole was at or close to melting, with temperatures at least 20°C above normal”.
