It is the first African tropical wave to become an invest in the Atlantic this season.
Advertisement
The circulation around an unusually strong and large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic has been scooping up the dry air and dust and distributing it across a large part of the basin. Some spin was evident in the cloud pattern, and low-level spiral banding features had begun to appear. The dry air shows up as black / orange color. These conditions are favorable for development of a tropical depression.
The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Beyond this weekend, winds surrounding the system may become too disruptive for further development.
The Thursday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The climatological peak of hurricane season is late August into mid-September.
“Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves generally westward”, the center said.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
There are a few factors that may help development during the next few days.
Advertisement
For now, we will keep a close eye on the chance of 96L becoming Tropical Storm Earl in the coming days.
