“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s hard to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development”, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
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A forecast compiled by the Weather Channel earlier this month predicts an above-average 14 named storms this year, including eight hurricanes, three of which would be higher than Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. In a “normal” year, there are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes, NOAA said.
“Regardless of whether this develops into a tropical depression or a named storm, the Carolinas are going to get some impact from this”, said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist with the Weather Channel.
Robichaud said the predictions suggest the trend will continue throughout the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to the end of November.
I may be jumping the gun a little, but I do think that Tropical Depression 2 will reach tropical storm status (39 miles per hour winds) today (Sat.).
Those numbers include Hurricane Alex, which formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January.
But scientists have noted indications that water temperatures in the Atlantic might be cooling, and this could make it more hard for tropical storms to form. Recent research indicates climate change is likely to make hurricanes more intense in the future. There is also a 40% chance of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean this year, compared to a 42% average over the last century, they said.
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Armed with a suite of new tools, including a powerful new satellite, Sullivan said NOAA forecasters will be better able to forecast storms and issue warnings, including storm surge and flooding that cause the most storm-related deaths. The high activity eras are associated with warmer Atlantic Ocean waters and a stronger West African monsoon. During a warm period, which we have been in for more than 20 years, the warmth fuels hurricanes. From fiscal 2005 through 2013, hurricanes consumed more than $60 billion in federal disaster money, 75 percent of all Federal Emergency Management Agency aid, or about $500 per US household.
