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Bets soar on whether Saudi Arabia will abandon dollar peg
Saudi Arabia, its finances hit by low oil prices, announced plans to shrink a record state budget deficit with spending cuts, reforms to energy subsidies and a drive to raise revenues from taxes and privatization.
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The government expects the 2016 budget deficit to narrow to 326 billion riyals ($87 billion) from 367 billion riyals ($97.84 billion) in 2015, Kallanish Energy finds.
Revenues were estimated to be at 608 billion riyals ($162 billion), well below projections and the 2014 income, while spending came in at 975 billion riyals ($260 billion), ministry officials announced at a press conference in Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia posted a $98 billion budget deficit this year as oil, its biggest source of income, sank to the lowest level in 11 years. Revenue from oil sales in 2015 will be 444.5 billion riyals down by 23 percent from 2014, according to the finance ministry statement.
The budget announcement was the first opportunity for the government to publicly outline its plans for the economy after state finances were drained by more than a year of cheap oil, pushing Saudi Arabia to delay public projects and to issue bonds for the first time since 2007.
After the worst year in a generation, a number of key developments are expected to unfold this coming year that could have a huge impact on either the price of oil or prospects for the Canadian oil industry. “Last year the government revenues were 15 per cent less than the original target, due to reduced government revenues from oil and other sectors”, said Eke. On Monday, it raised the price for Octane 95 gasoline to 0.90 riyal a liter from 0.60 riyal a liter effective Tuesday.
Suhaimi, however, said the deficit is “considered an acceptable figure” under the present circumstances, with oil languishing at its lowest in several years. As is typical for the published version of the budget, it did not include a projected oil price.
Prices will also increase for water, electricity, diesel, and kerosene.
“Our economy has the potential to meet challenges”, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman said in his speech.
Reducing dependence on oil revenue has proved an intractable problem for generations of Saudi leaders, whose periodic efforts to reform the economy have traditionally faltered as soon as public feeling turned against change or crude prices rose.
Besides enacting a first jump in petrol prices in a decade, Prince Mohammed’s committee has already created a new project management office to rein in spending, tightened departmental budgets and committed to introducing value added tax (VAT).
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A quarter of next year’s spending, or $57 billion, has been allocated for defence and security expenditures, the ministry pointed out.