North American producers have dominated global shale gas supply for the past decade, but Spencer said production around the world will expand and account for almost 50% of global shale supply, with greater contributions from China, Argentina and Canada.
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Rising incomes, a doubling of GDP and population growth to 8.8 billion by 2035 will be the key drivers behind the growing demand for energy, the report said. BP argued that an additional 260 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) of coal and 100 million toe of renewables could be crowded out in the stronger shale case.
The predictions are contained in the latest annual BP Energy Outlook, which looks at long-term trends and develops projections for world energy markets over the next two decades.
“In the middle of a downturn in oil and gas prices, it is important not only to adapt to the current tough conditions, but also to prepare for the next set of challenges”.
BP CEO Bob Dudley said no single change or policy is likely to be sufficient on its own to tackle the “most likely” unsustainable path for carbon emissions, and that identifying which changes are likely to be most effective is fraught with difficulty.
The positive picture for fossil fuel prices and production from BP was attacked by critics as disingenuous and self-serving.
The oil sector may be in the doldrums – but BP can see light at the end of the tunnel and has predicted that the oil price could even return to $100 a barrel again.
BP expects the US double oil production by 2020 to 8 million barrels/per day.
Late past year, BP struck two multibillion-dollar deals with China to help cultivate its vast shale natural gas resources as part of China’s efforts to reduce air pollution from the massive amount of coal it burns for power. Instead, we need to think about our goals our energy future, and focus on the opportunity for an innovation-based and energy-efficient resilient economy.
In the past 20 months, the price of a barrel of oil has collapsed from about $115 in summer 2014 to about $33 today. He said the second half of 2016 would see stronger prices because “every storage tank and swimming pool” would be full of oil.
Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use decline by 0.4%/year, despite the growth in energy consumption, as renewables and natural gas gain market share. “However, further policy action may be necessary to meet global targets to limit carbon emissions”.
But for refiners, with nearly half of total global liquids supply growth to come from NGLs, biofuels and other liquids that do not require refining, BP implied a “long period of volatile margins” and further capacity reductions in disadvantaged locations.
United States shale gas is expected to grow by around 4% per annum.
USA onshore production in the lower 48 states has declined by around 500,000 bpd since last spring and is expected to fall further in the near term as the global market readjusts before rebounding, Dale said.
“Its a very challenging environment but our job here is not to do anything in terms of advocacy”.
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Launching the outlook, Dale denied the base case forecast was one the company planned its business round but said it was up to ministers to find wider solutions to climate change. Our job is not to say whats optimal what is the right thing to do, that’s for policy makers.
