TD 9 is expected to make landfall near hurricane strength on Thursday afternoon – possibly in the same Big Bend area of the state where Tropical Storm Colin came ashore earlier this summer.
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Hurricane Lester, a category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, is moving to the west at about 13 mph and is located about 1,000 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.
Governor Scott issued an executive order declaring a state of emergency in 42 Florida counties in anticipation of Tropical Depression 9 this morning. The hurricane center said coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas could get 4 to 7 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday morning.
With the storm centered about 70 miles (115 kilometers) south of Cape Hatteras, a tropical storm warning was in effect for much of the Outer Banks. Friction between the storm and the land could also cause some severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in central Florida.
The storm is expected to make landfall on Thursday afternoon or early evening along Florida’s Nature Coast, which stretches from Jefferson to Pasco counties. As a cold front starts to enter the Southeastern United States Thursday, the storm will be forced to turn more to the northeast, in the direction of the Florida Gulf coast.
Lonka said the storm in the Gulf was forecast to move across northern Florida later this week toward the Atlantic Ocean, but likely to stay south of North Carolina. Tropical storms become hurricanes when wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour.
Watches and Warnings-changes with this advisory: none.
Tropical Depression 9 has been moving slow ever since forecasters began watching the low pressure system on August 18, but it almost has come to a halt in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm surge – coastal erosion and flooding – should not be underestimated even if it’s “only” a tropical storm.
This is the first year that the NHC is issuing prototype storm surge watches, warnings and maps, after research showed that hurricane warnings did not adequately convey the full extent of the storm surge threat. If peak storm surge occurs at the same time as high tide, areas such as Tampa Bay could see flooding of 1 to 2 feet. Nine has been around seemingly forever, stubbornly refusing to strengthen into a tropical storm, but it is worth paying attention to the next few days.
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National Weather Service meteorologist Shane Kearns in eastern North Carolina said in an interview that “anything is possible, but we’re not really seeing any kind of significant strengthening for the storm”.
