Labor, which had said from the start that closing Mr Randall’s 12 per cent margin would be a tough call, appeared to be managing expectations as polling day drew closer.
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Opinion polls taken before Abbott’s ouster indicated the Liberals would hold the seat, albeit with a greatly reduced margin — amid a voter backlash against a government marred by internal divisions and slowing economic growth.
“The people of Canning have a decision to make and over the past four to five weeks, I believe I’ve made the case that I would be a good representative for Canning in Canberra“.
Mr Hastie’s primary support was 48.4 per cent, up 3.1 points since the spill, compared with 32.9 per cent for Mr Keogh (down 3.5) and 7.6 per cent for Vanessa Rauland from the Greens.
Matt Keogh had already been the forgotten big-party candidate in the Canning byelection.
The poll was seen as a potentially devastating verdict on Tony Abbott’s prime ministership butthe federal Liberal party has delivered his premature ejection at the beginning of the week. Mr Keogh would not say if he would move out of the area if he lost the by-election or whether he would run for the seat of Burt, which will apply from the next federal election and take in parts of Canning and Hasluck.
“Not part-time police for the area we’ve got here”.
While Mr Hastie was able to speak about fighting the Taliban, Mr Keogh, with his mild-mannered Clark Kent-like appearance, looked more like he might have headed to the hustings straight from a game of quidditch.
He said the key issues – jobs, public transport and combating the scourge of methamphetamine – had resonated with voters.
At the same time, a poor result for Labor could put pressure on Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s leadership.
Labor had set up placards at polling booths throughout the south-eastern suburbs with Ms Bishop and former PM Tony Abbott embracing with the words “Loyalty” splashed across them.
“There’s no doubt that Turnbull is a more popular politician than Abbott, so that should help”, said Dr Martin Drum, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Notre Dame, who predicts the Liberals will narrowly hold the seat.
Ms Bishop said Labor was trying to distract voters from local concerns.
But the Liberal Party had one important – and underrated – trick up its sleeve: opting not to return fire at Keogh would prevent Labor’s man from becoming a household name.
“The less recognisable Keogh is, the better for Hastie, the Liberal’s candidate”.
A ReachTEL poll published in today’s West Australian newspaper showed Labor’s focus on the free trade agreement with China had an impact, with one in two respondents considering the deal a threat to local jobs.
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While Greg James said it didn’t change the way he voted, he was convinced it would matter for Liberal voters in the electorate.
