Despite strong global economic growth, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), seen as the main driver of climate disruption, is forecast to stall or even decline in 2015, a study revealed Monday, December 7.
Advertisement
Researchers at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom and the Global Carbon Project found that carbon emissions are set to decline by 0.6 per cent in 2015, a dramatic turnaround from a decade of growing 2.4 per cent per year.
The authors cautioned that this year’s “pause” is not likely to last, as developing economies in India and elsewhere around the world are projected to increase emissions from coal and oil in the coming decades.
“Reaching zero emissions will require long-term commitments from countries attending the climate meeting in Paris this week and beyond”, Professor Jackson said.
Despite robust global economic growth over the past two years, worldwide carbon emissions from fossil fuels grew very little in 2014, and might even fall this year.
“The high growth rates in global Carbon dioxide emissions prevalent since the early 2000s ceased in the past two years, at least temporarily, despite robust growth in global economic activity”, the report said.
But Le Quere says it’s China, the world’s biggest source of CO2, that will drive the ups and downs in the emissions numbers for the world in the near future.
The study was conducted by 70 scientists, led by Le Quere.
To achieve climate stabilization, emissions will need to be reduced to near zero.
Merry Christmas, Mother Earth – this year humankind has first time cut its carbon emissions.
Greenpeace’s worldwide climate politics chief, Martin Kaiser, said this is not enough of a reason to celebrate or be complacent, as emissions have to come down fast in order to save the planet.
While smog is a different environmental problem, much of it is blamed on coal-fired power plants and vehicle emissions, which also are key sources of carbon emissions.
Australia’s per capita emissions has been stable at high levels, however there has been a strong declining trend over the past six years.
Dr. Pep Canadell added that this is the first time that the worsening climate change and the economic progress have become inversely related.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, there was indeed a drop in coal consumption in 2014 by coal based industries in China among steel, cement, and fertilizer factories, resulting in overall coal production dropping dramatically.
The largest emitter was China, with 9.7 billion tonnes, followed by US (5.6), the European Union (3.4) and India (2.6), together accounting for nearly 60% of global emissions.
But John Holdren, the science adviser to the White House, says whether the decline is a blip or more lasting, it suggests that a real decline in emissions is within reach. Globally, total installed solar photovoltaic capacity jumped from 3.7GW in 2004 to 178GW a year ago, with 40GW of new capacity.
“They’re responsible for seven per cent of Carbon dioxide emissions but this level is the same as where China was in 1990”, he said.
Dr. Canadell, however, warned that the slight drop in the emissions may not mean the world has changed its attitude and perspective towards climate change.
Advertisement
According to its pledge for the Paris talks, China aims to ensure its emissions peak by 2030, and decline thereafter. “We have already seen the Indian emissions take off in the last couple of years”.
