Feed and residual use for 2016/17 is projected 300 million bushels higher with higher production, lower expected prices, and further expansion in animal numbers in 2016/17.
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The USDA is forecasting Kansas farmers will harvest 30 million more bushels than 2015, an increase of more than 8 percent. Hoosier farmers are now down 5 percent from where they were a year ago.
Hard red winter wheat, the type commonly grown in Kansas, is also forecast to be up 4 percent nationwide at 863 million bushels.
The tug of war between bulls and bears in the corn and soybean market continued this week with the focus nearly entirely on South American weather developments.
Pfitzenmaier said $9.10 for many soybean producers is break-even. Therefore even if the USDA chooses to increase 2016/17 total US corn demand 500 million bushels year-on-year, the 2016/17 USA corn carryout still pencils back at more than 2,250 million bushels.
Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…
“Farmers continue to make planting progress between the rains and now 80 percent of corn and 29 percent of soybeans are in the ground”, said Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey. Brazil corn production for 2016-’17 is 1.0 million tons higher than this month’s lowered outlook for 2015-’16, as area is expected to decline slightly, but yields rise from those now expected for the 2015-’16 crop.
USDA on Tuesday projected a record corn crop of 14.4 billion bushels, up 829 million from past year and 214 million bushels more than the previous high in 2014.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the agency to project that US corn stocks will balloon above 2.2 billion bushels by the end of 2016/17, which would be the most since 1987/88. July wheat delivery added 4.75 cents, or 1.04 percent, to close at 4.6125 dollars per bushel. The June 30 report of USA acres will be the next opportunity to see acres revisions take place.
2015/16 U.S. Corn Carryout: The trade is already anticipating a decrease to the old-crop carryout by virtue of an increase to exports.
Keep in mind that USDA tends to be conservative on big changes.
According to the USDA’s latest Crop Progress report, 64% of corn has now been planted, compared to 69% last year and the five-year average of 50%.
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Some analysts also noted that rains on Tuesday in the US midwest gave additional export to corn as the rain may delay the corn planting.
