Speaking to Space.com this summer, several experts suggested that signs hint that the eight-ton Tiangong-1 space station is out of control.
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The Tiangong-1 space station was launched in September 2011 and now orbits Earth at an altitude of 230 miles (370km). As a result, nobody is certain when or where the station is set to fall back to Earth.
“Based on our calculation and analysis, most parts of the space lab will burn up during falling”, the deputy director of China’s manned space engineering office, Wu Ping, was quoted as saying by official news agency Xinhua.
The 34-foot-long laboratory was launched in September 2011 and was home to a total of six Chinese “taikonauts” (two separate missions with three crewmembers) including Liu Yang, the first Chinese woman in space.
Normally, a decommissioned satellite or space station would be retired by forcing it to burn up in the atmosphere.
If this is the case, it would be impossible to predict where the debris from the space station will land.
It’s simply a matter of chance.
Over the course of its five-year lifespan, Tiangong-1 conducted observations of various natural phenomena on Earth, including Australian bush fires and the Yuyao floods in the eastern Zhejiang province. Still, keep an eye to the sky next year.
“Not knowing when it’s going to come down translates as not knowing where its going to come down”.
While most of the eight tonnes of space station would melt as it passes through the atmosphere, McDowell said some parts, such as the rocket engines, were so dense that they wouldn’t burn up completely.
He said that even small changes in atmospheric conditions would be enough to nudge the craft “from one continent to the next”.
“Based on our calculation and analysis, most parts of the space lab will burn up during falling”, the official said, adding that the Tiangong-1 is now intact and is orbiting at a height of approximately 370 kilometers.
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But Wu also noted that China has a long history of managing space debris and mitigating problems with space junk – and the world will certainly be hoping that that experience pays off in the second half of 2017.
