In addition to the legal impact of this decision, which is considered a cornerstone in the evolution of the East Sea disputes, the case is expected to favor Manila on nearly every aspect and affect the prestige of China.
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China has repeatedly said it will ignore the verdict despite pressure from the USA and its allies to comply.
After new Philippine Cabinet members struck a conciliatory tone on the upcoming ruling in the arbitration case against China, Beijing said disputes with the Philippines could only be properly managed and resolved “through negotiation and consultation”, not arbitration.
The Philippines hopes for a “soft landing” in a dispute with China over the South China Sea when the arbitration court in The Hague delivers its ruling, President Rodrigo Duterte said on Thursday after he was sworn in.
A Chinese official, however, said, “We are not bound by the UNCLOS”, the source said.
“I again stress that the arbitration court has no jurisdiction in the case and on the relevant matter, and should not hold hearings or make a ruling”, he said.
Reichler also said Beijing risks being seen as an “outlaw state” unless it respects the outcome.
In contrast, 40 countries have voiced support for the arbitration proceedings, said the award will be legally binding, and/or called on China and the Philippines to respect it. Beijing is also busy working to secure the support of other – generally developing – nations to support its position. China has been stepping up its public messaging as the ruling date approaches, and garnering support among far-flung nations, mostly in Africa and Mideast.
The Philippines turned to the tribunal after China effectively seized control of Scarborough Shoal, a tiny uninhabited reef off Luzon Island, following a tense standoff with Philippine vessels.
“In the days ahead, the country should continue to advocate that all states, including China, must abide by the terms of the ruling and that all claimants should avoid any activity that could worsen tensions in the region”, Manhit said.
There have been allegations that the U.S. staffed a team of lawyers to lead the Philippines through the arbitration process, and encouraged them to launch their arbitration case when a Japanese national was president of the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. While the territorial dispute over the South China Sea was a key issue, priority would be given to crushing Islamist militants in the Philippines, Manila’s new defence minister Delfin Lorenzana told Reuters.
China has accused the United States of “hyping” the issue and warned in May that global complaints about its actions in the South China Sea would snap back on its critics.
“With regard to territorial issues and maritime delimitation disputes, China does not accept any means of third-party dispute settlement or any solution imposed on China”, foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.
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China has accused Washington of turning the South China Sea into a powder keg and says the US should stay out.
