Third-quarter gross domestic product is now forecast to grow 6.8%, down from 7% in the second quarter, according to a Reuters poll of 50 economists.
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Referring to a new study by the Center for Strategic and worldwide Studies (CSIS), NAB said that adopting the latest methodology would result in a significant increase in the estimated size of the Chinese economy.
China’s slowing growth and stock market volatility this year have roiled global financial markets.
In a bid to stoke activity, the central bank already has cut lending rates five times since November to 4.60 percent, and lowered the amount of cash that the biggest banks must hold as reserves to 18.0 percent. On the flip side, a few economists buck that view and believe consumption and service-sector growth are being underestimated by the government.
Signs the world’s second-largest economy – a key driver of global growth – is struggling will add to pressure on Beijing to do more to head off a hard landing.
But Industrial Bank chief economist Lu Zhengwei predicted the outlook to pick up later this year: “Investment will be better than the third quarter and the loose monetary policy will start to take effect”.
China’s policymakers think they can stem a rapid rundown of the country’s foreign exchange reserves and ease pressure on the currency by pump-priming the economy to meet this year’s growth target, sources involved in policy discussions say.
China’s producer prices continue to fall in September, signalling prolonged weakness in aggregate demand, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.
A raft of monthly indicators will be released with the GDP data, and analysts will be looking for signs as to whether momentum is still fading or if the economy may be slowly stabilizing.
Annual retail sales growth was seen at 10.8 percent in September, unchanged from August. Consumer prices rose 1.6 percent over a year earlier, driven by a 2.7 percent rise in food costs, data showed yesterday. The country’s imports fell more than 20 percent in September, falling far short of analyst forecasts.
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China has officially set its GDP growth target at “around 7%” for all of 2015 – its lowest in 11 years.
