Research shows that actual electoral outcomes usually fall somewhere between the results of polls that include third-party candidates and those that do not.
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Aiming to deliver a knockout blow to Donald Trump’s staggering presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton turned to popular first lady Michelle Obama to rally voters in North Carolina. Even three in 10 of her own supporters see conflicts of interest ahead. The 79 percent of Republican likely voters who say they’re supporting Trump this year rises slightly to 85 percent if forced to choose only between Trump and Clinton. According to our estimates, Mrs. Clinton has a 16-point lead among newly registered voters. (Without rounding, she leads by 9.80 points, 47.40%-37.60%.) Support for third-party candidates has been cut in half since late August, a trend that is common for as voting nears. The survey shows commanding advantages for Clinton heading into the final days of the campaign.
Now, you can just intone the word outliers and dismiss any of these polls you wish. “An overwhelming majority of millennials saw her with fresh eyes – and, generally speaking, they liked what they saw”. They do, however, clearly offer partisans a huge cherry-picking opportunity to reinforce whatever they choose to believe about the trajectory of the contest.
A separate poll conducted for the Associated Press gave her a commanding double-digit lead over Trump. That was a big departure from the average of $2 million a month he was spending personally in his first months as the GOP nominee, when it looked more likely that he could knock off Hillary Clinton. The Southern Poverty Law Center reported that Trump’s campaign “is producing an alarming level of fear and anxiety among children of color and inflaming racial and ethnic tensions in the classroom”. It’s a pattern that has been true across all of the Upshot/Siena surveys in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
The CNN model that counts 20 States as solid Republican and 17 States as solid Democratic predicts only 157 guaranteed electoral college votes for Mr. Trump while Ms. Clinton starts with 200 assured votes.
The House is a different matter.
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If Trump were to win Texas by single digits, Democrats would have cause to celebrate. She has maintained a lead over Trump of at least 5 points in the national four-way presidential race for two weeks.
