USA Today, the nation’s largest paper by circulation, also ran a front-page story on Trump’s Second Amendment remarks, but only carried the Clinton story in a blog on the editorial page by the conservative writer Glenn Reynolds, known as “Instapundit”. “She has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania and the narrowest of edges in OH, but Florida, with the largest cache of Electoral College votes is a tie”. Clinton’s unfavorable rating is at 53 percent.
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For the goal of thought experimentation (and Friday afternoon fun!), let’s be exceedingly generous and say that national polls tighten to within the margin of error and Trump is able to win all of the Romney 2012 states plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada. If these national numbers stay in that range, it’s not worth the time and energy spent focusing on outcomes in battleground states: She’ll win them all.
If Trump can’t win Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, or find a way to flip some other equally distant state like Wisconsin or MI, he can’t put himself over the edge, even in a much closer national race. Trump simply can’t lose all three. She leads Trump 46% to 33% in a head-to-head match-up in the Old Dominion State, which her running mate, Tim Kaine, is the junior US senator.
Last month at the Democratic convention, Clinton’s support for the TPP came under question again when Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a longtime friend, suggested that once in the White House she might look to support or renegotiate the deal.
As U.S. citizens, Puerto Ricans, who number more than 1 million in Florida alone, are eligible to register to vote from the day they arrive.
Now, to his credit, Trump has actually polled quite competitively in Florida, with most recent polls showing a virtual tie. That in itself could prove hard because Trump support has weakened in Arizona and North Carolina is at risk.
The polls showed Clinton with double-digit leads over Republican nominee Donald Trump in Virginia and Colorado, while she has narrower advantages in Florida and North Carolina. Obviously all of that is complicated by the fact that swing states move in lockstep to some extent: If Trump comes back strongly enough to hit the trifecta, odds are he’ll be strong enough to win North Carolina, Iowa, and maybe Nevada too.
A new Fox News Latino poll of 803 registered Latinos voters nationwide showed that of all Latino subgroups, Puerto Ricans gave Clinton the strongest favorability rate, 65 percent, over Trump, who got just 12 percent.
As we move forward in this campaign, the polls in Florida will be really important – and will be treated as such.
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But Florida is basically a moot point if he continues to trail by double digits or even close to it in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
