With both conventions now mostly incorporated in the UPI/CVoter data, the effects for Trump show a steady downward trend from his high water mark coming out of the Republican National Convention. That isn’t lost on the candidates, with both campaigns swinging through Florida this week.
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Clinton’s surprising edge in Georgia follows a week of favorable national and battleground state polling for the former secretary of state after a bounce from the Democratic National Convention and fueled by Trump’s own hard stretch.
Meanwhile, Trump’s spat with the parents of a US soldier killed in Iraq – the father spoke at the Democratic convention – continues to make trouble for the candidate. Kelly Ayotte 50% to 40%.
The NBC/WSJ poll surveyed 800 registered voters between July 31 and August 3, while the McClatchy-Marist poll surveyed 983 registered voters between August 1-3. Because UPI and CVoter rely on online polling where users self-select to participate, a margin of error can not be calculated. Polls there show Clinton and Trump in close contests.
“The DNC really just shot themselves in the foot repeatedly”, 20-something Caleb Shake-Garfield told The Christian Science Monitor at the recent Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. That makes Clinton’s lead over Trump 9 points, a one-point drop compared to the two-way match. Depending on how you look at it, between one fifth and one quarter of people aren’t yet willing to vote for Trump or Clinton. Clinton takes 81 percent of Democrats while 13 percent back the Republican nominee.
This was the first poll conducted by the news station since the two nominees chose their running mates. “She’s a disaster, so we’re going to focus more on Hillary Clinton”, Trump said. Accordingly, while FiveThirtyEight incorporates the same polls as Real Clear Politics, it arrives at a different conclusion: Clinton leads by 6 points and if the election were held today, she would have an 86 percent chance of winning the state.
When two minor party candidates are added to the mix, Clinton’s lead shrinks.
Pollster Richard Czuba told the Detroit News the survey found a “shocking” Clinton lead in typically reliable Republican areas in west and southwest MI, where she carries leads of 5-6 points. An AL.com unscientific poll Thursday still showed strong support for Trump with more than 12,000 votes cast.
Asked what they see as the most important issue facing the next president, 26 percent of those surveyed said terrorism and national security while 18 percent think it is jobs and the economy and 10 percent say naming justices to the Supreme Court.
An IBD/TIPP poll conducted July 29-Aug. It has a margin of error of +/- 4 points.
“Hillary Clinton is leading thanks to southern Florida and women”, according to Paleologos.
Clinton beats Trump 48% to 42% among likely Florida voters, according to the survey from Suffolk University. She leads 43% to 39% when third-party candidates are included. Clinton’s continued rightward shift could push more voters out of her camp, but she clearly feels she’ll win even more Republicans looking for a business-friendly candidate and a military hawk.
The Suffolk poll also found that majorities – 57% – said the country was on the wrong track, and that they felt less safe than 5-10 years ago. She is viewed positively by 37 percent of voters, while 53 percent view her negatively (for a net score of -16).
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FILE – A supporter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wears a campaign button before the start of a rally in Spokane, Wash., May 7, 2016. It has a margin of error of +/-4.4 points.
